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Lets be honest, Dr Bubb has been predicting this current economic meltdown for the last few years even when things were booming he was adamant there was going to be a big price for all this speculation and crazy borrowing. He was ridiculed and scorned for sticking to his guns and taking his money out of UK property.

Who now thinks that the Good Dr was right all along and a lot of arrogant misled people have to eat humble pie ?

Is the guy a financial wizard, he urged us to buy gold and again he was right with record prices for gold now ?  

Lets be honest a lot of people are sinking as the weight of their over geared, over priced property portfilios drags them into the abyss.

Who has been wiped out and is there any way back ?.

The problem I have with Dr Bubb is a very simple one. He didn't predict anything.

As I remember he sold to rent in 2002? Cutting himself off from 6 years of growth. His predictions for a imminent and catastrophic crash in 2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006..... were based on reasons that were fundamentally wrong. His reasons for economic downturn were neither timely nor substantiated by the causes of the  current crisis.

Predicting boom and bust is kind of like predicting the tide, it will keep happening. The key is knowing why and when, he did neither successfully. For myself the key isn't to predict rises and falls as if they will kill me, it is to live on a waterproof boat called Yield.

RS ... "waterproof boat called Yield"?!  i like that .... nicely put. 

i think bubb's timing was off ... STR in 2002 was clearly a good 5 years out if the (current) peak was summer 2007... and for me he seemed to fundamentally misunderstand property investment.  how many times was he asked to compare the returns, factoring in leverage, of shares/gold/mining stocks to residential property ... and yet couldn;t provide a convincing alternative ... and i for one was open to learning about other forms of investment.

simply stating that investors are highly leveraged (well, that's true even at 70%, which is a sensible gearing level to my mind), that property is an illiquid asset (always has been, alwasy will be), that the housing market will eventually fall ......... etc, was not particualrly useful advice. 

however, he did predict that max LTVs would hit 70% ... so not far off the mark with that one. 

I guess he understood the investing he was doing very well, I for one one couldn't emulate his success being neither informed enough nor clever enough to invest in the stockmarket. Having said all that he is probably giggling to himself on a beach in Malaysia making fortunes from a laptop, I in the meantime will be looking to save a few quid by getting my arm down a u bend.....

So maybe he's not such a putz afterall. 

PGT - it's interesting and timely that you refer to Dr. Bubb.  I have come across a lot of his old posts lately and it seems to me he did forsee what has happened.  He talked a lot about greed, the unsustainability of unregulated and sub-prime lending, over-exposure through 100% financing, and the problems the "get rich quick" mentality would cause.   Like you say, he suffered a tidal wave of disapproval because of it, but maybe those using the capital growth/equity release model would have benefitted by heeding his words?

RedShoes - love the "waterproof boat called Yield".    A good analogy.  Luckily, we too are floating in one as , early on, we recognised the importance of cash-flow.

Vanessa Warwick:

PGT - it's interesting and timely that you refer to Dr. Bubb.  I have come across a lot of his old posts lately and it seems to me he did forsee what has happened.  He talked a lot about greed, the unsustainability of unregulated and sub-prime lending, over-exposure through 100% financing, and the problems the "get rich quick" mentality would cause.   Like you say, he suffered a tidal wave of disapproval because of it, but maybe those using the capital growth/equity release model would have benefitted by heeding his words?

RedShoes - love the "waterproof boat called Yield".    A good analogy.  Luckily, we too are floating in one as , early on, we recognised the importance of cash-flow.

Vanessa, this is my point the man was very accurate in some of his predictions.

A prophet does not get the exact day right but he could see the impending doom and warned about over gearing and just the crazy bull run which was bound to end in tears.

I bet a lot of people who scorned his advice then would give their right arm to turn the clock now. I got rid of one property I may have hung onto, partly from gut instinct and partly from heeding some of his words. I started to really do some research and realised some of the things he was saying were true and quite plain to see.

A year ago I started warning people to consolidate their debts and make sure their ship was in order because a rough ride was coming. Look at the market now ? Unfortunately for some it is too late to get out of the troubled waters and the casualties will grow. Remember his warning about the credit crunch ? he was laughed off this platform.

I wonder what advice Dr Bubb would give now for those wishing to improve there chances of surviving this rather dramatic downturn ?

Dr Bubb............[:'(]

pgtips:

I wonder what advice Dr Bubb would give now for those wishing to improve there chances of surviving this rather dramatic downturn ?

Dr Bubb............[:'(]

do you even have to ask?!  his universal response would have been "sell up".

and therein lies the reason for bubb's message never really hitting home on SP (aside from his generally arrogant posting style, unwilling to "discuss" anything, only ever dishing out patronising advice with a single message .... "sell") ... he couldn;t appreciate that many on SP are professional, serious investors/developers/landlords. 

in all honesty, i can't really say that the current situation has changed my strategy much ... looking back to (say) summer 2007. i would still have bought the 2 props i did in september, and the one in december, and the one in february .....etc. i would still be looking at 20% BMV minimum, props in good areas that will rent all day long ... beefing up my capital as my portfolio increases ... selling off the odd mistake (what??!), paying down my debt, maintaining my props, looking after my tenants, etc ......... in other words, continuing to grow my business sensibly.