Singing Pig

yellow_bird, did you miss this article in the Gulf News??

Business | Banking and Finance

Published: 19/9/2005, 00:00 (UAE)

Al Suwaidi warns of sharp correction

By Stanley Carvalho, Staff Reporter

Abu Dhabi: The UAE Central Bank Governor yesterday expressed concerns about asset prices and capital flows into real estate and stock markets and cautioned that a sharp correction was imminent.
Sultan Bin Nasser Al Suwaidi said spiralling rents were a major cause of inflation.

“Asset prices [mainly real estate and stocks] are a concern for me at this point and we should do something about it.

"And investment funds that went into the real estate market are creating excess capacity and if this excess capacity in the real estate markets cannot be absorbed there will be a sharp correction and rents and prices will go down,” Al Suwaidi told a gathering of bankers.

“There will also be a correction in the financial markets that were already down but gaining slowly. To help the financial markets, we must create awareness to redirect investment flows into other sectors.”

The concern is if the excess capacity in the real estate markets can be absorbed or not. I think the article you mention is more concerned about inflation.
One thing to remember is that apartments will be staged released.
Some of these towers will not be complete for years yet whilst other are due for completetion in a few month.
I do feel however, that there will be some kind of a small dip in 2007 but see the market picking up again soon afterwards as DubaiLand and other major projects come into fruition. Dubai's population and GDP is growing at an incredible amount.
You should see Dubai as a long term market. Around 2012 - 2015 Dubai should be a fabulous city and command extremely high propery prices compared to today's relatively low prices by international standards.

Post Edited (yellow_bird) : 9/20/2005 5:21:57 PM GMT

DUBAI — Dubai’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to reach Dh174.6 billion in the year 2009, according to realistic projections that take into account the emirate’s actual GDP growth over a period from 1995 to 2004, an expert presenting a paper at the Third Documentation and Electronic Archiving Conference, said yesterday.

Dr Zainal Abideen Wafaee, Statistics Expert at Dubai Municipality’s Statistics Centre and Head of the Scientific Committee of the conference, made these predictions in a paper on ‘The Changing Profiles of Non-Oil Foreign Exports and their Revealed Comparative Advantages in the Emirate of Dubai’. He noted that Dubai’s GDP in 2004 totalled Dh110.7 billion, which constituted 29.2 per cent of the UAE’s overall GDP, which last year stood at Dh378.8 billion.

“Dubai’s GDP has been growing at a moderate pace over the past few years as indicated by official statistics. In 1995, it was Dh41.3 billion, while it rose to Dh110.7 billion in 2004, which means an overall growth of 98.7 per cent during this 10-year period, and an annual average growth of 11 per cent. On the national level, this average growth during the same period was 9.8 per cent per annum,” said Dr Wafaee.

He noted that changes in comparative advantage should reflect changes in factor endowment, but increasingly, changes in trade policies also affect the emirate’s trade performance. Based on the arguments in stages of the Comparative Advantage Theory, the paper explained the performance of exports in Non-Oil Foreign Exports (NOFE) of the Dubai Emirate economy over the period 1998-2001 and examined the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices between exports sectors in Dubai.

Wafaee noted that Dubai’s economic growth could be described as balanced and poised for a remarkable leap, thanks to the wise economic policies that aimed at diversifying the sources of national income. “The retail and wholesale trade as well as the services sector play a pivotal role in the emirate’s economic growth. The financial sector comprising banks and insurance companies have also contributed tremendously towards turning the city into one of the most important financial centres of the region,” Dr Wafaee said in his paper

Ummmmm, no, he is very definately concerned about a bubble in both Real estate and the Stock Market.

I have lived in Dubai for the last 10 years so I have a pretty good feel for what's going on - that's why I have sold my Real Estate here and banked the profit. Just my opinion, but I think we are in for more than a dip!

Jump to 2012 - can you seriously consider that a luxury 2 bed Dubai Marina view apartment will still only be worth 150k or less? Dubai will be one of the best cities in the world by then. In the long term prices can only go up. The important thing with Dubai is to purchase in the correct location - if you do that you should not see any dip in price.

I would agree, that long term prices will stabalise, however there is a long, long way to go until 2012!

It's a very hard market to call. Not just because the real estate market is almost brand new, but also because data on the demographics of the population in Dubai is not easy to find. It is a rich country but GDP per head is badly skewed by a smaller percentage of very rich people, this makes me wonder who will be living in all this luxury property that will be available for rent. To put it another way, I am on a pretty good package here, but my housing allowance would now only just cover a small villa in the springs!

I am very bearish at the moment and am taking a defensive position.

Last week Michael Jackson now....

Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie arrived yesterday afternoon for a secret holiday at the Burj Al Arab. The A-list Hollywood couple arrived in Dubai by private jet with Angelina's children Maddox, four, and Zahara, six months.

A US source with access to Angelina's itinerary told Emirates Today: " Angelina, Brad and the family flew into the Burj Al Arab by helicopter. They have booked the royal suite and intend to spend a few days relaxing together away from the media."

They will enjoy the privacy provided by the exclusive hotel's tight security and the sheer opulence of the suite.

Set over two tiers, it covers 780 square meters and his unique features such as a rotating four poster bed, private cinema, private lift and stunning view over the Gulf. It also has a second bedroom for Angelina's two children and a nanny will be on stand-by.

The couple are expected to stay in the Burj for three to four days and the hotel has tightened its security to accommodate them. Extra guards have been added and even staff are not permitted to drive to the main building.

Brad tied in his holiday nicely with the Harry Winston charity gala dinner, which was held last night in the Al Falak ballroom in the Burj Al Arab. The ocean's Eleven star is extremly good friends with the jeweller, even arranging for Harry to desing his wedding bands when he married Jennifer Aniston in 2000. The pair split this year amid rumours he was having an affair with Mr and Mrs Smith co-star Angelina.

Jolie and Pitt have subsequently stayed private about their affair and have still not declared they are together. But brad was recently pictured with Anfelina and her children appears to play a regular role in their life.

The could will be using their holiday to spend some time with newly adopted Ethiopian baby, Zahara Marley.

Emirates Today = emiratestodayonline.com

We are now beginning to see more launches of towers in the Dubai land area. Prices are very reasonable at the moment just as they were in the Marina 18months ago. Come near 2008 these towers located near Dubai land will appreciate in value. Dubai Sports City has had launches as we've seen on this forum and they are selling really well.