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Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
Last post 26 Oct 2009, 3:51 AM by DrBubb. 27 replies.
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 27 Jan 2009, 8:55 AM |
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Bradley Wong
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Joined on 27 Jan 2009
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Posts 8
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
It is good to see that some here were Bearish. What do the long term Bears think of this 2009 market? Any still posting here?
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| 27 Jan 2009, 9:31 AM |
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Red Shoes
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Joined on 01 Jul 2005
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Surrey
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Posts 933
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
I guess I fit into this category and should be weeping into my coffee? Well here is a shocker, the day to day /year to year value of my properties plays no part in my business model - and never has. I think even Bubb agreed that in the long term properties increased in values, as does the stock market. He was into short term immediate gain (from trading stocks and from trading houses like they were stocks), as am I - from yield. In that respect with my mortgage more than halved, my rentals having increased by 30% and purchase prices going through the floor I struggle to see a downside.... Genuis or luck? Neither! He didn't foresee anything with any accuracy, he sold to rent in 2001 fearing an imminent and immediate crash...woops!
Houses wanted in Hull to £80k. All considered- burn outs /refurbs or refurbished. Fast completions no surveys. Commissions paid!
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| 07 May 2009, 1:24 AM |
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Thomas Maika
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Joined on 06 May 2009
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Posts 22
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
 red shoes: The problem I have with Dr Bubb is a very simple one. He didn't predict anything. As I remember he sold to rent in 2002? Cutting himself off from 6 years of growth. His predictions for a imminent and catastrophic crash in 2001,2002,2003,2004,2005,2006..... were based on reasons that were fundamentally wrong. His reasons for economic downturn were neither timely nor substantiated by the causes of the current crisis. Predicting boom and bust is kind of like predicting the tide, it will keep happening. The key is knowing why and when, he did neither successfully. For myself the key isn't to predict rises and falls as if they will kill me, it is to live on a waterproof boat called Yield.
If I am correct, his main investing record was this: 1/ Bought a property many years ago, sold it in 2001 at 4x what he paid for it. Had no job at the time 2/ Invested the money in Gold shares right at Gold's low of $250 in 2001 3/ Made 5x his money, while also living off the proceeds of his trading in mining stock 4/ Sold some gold shares in 2007/8, to buy properties in Hong Kong, where he had moved 5/ By the peak in HK property, owned 10 HK properties, enjoying HK's 2007-8 boom 6/ Saw some of his profits in HK slip away, as prices fell swiftly in Sept-Dec.2008 7/ Breathed a sigh of relief when HK prices showed a strong snap back, and thanked his "lucky stars" that he had gotten himself out of the UK, and out of Sterling 8/ Sold two HK properties, at an average profit of 10% 9/ Smiling and happy, wondering why no one on SP wanted to listen to his persistent warnings about UK property How long do you think I will be able to give you his news before someone decides "that must be Bubb, posting on SP again", and gets me banned?
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| 07 May 2009, 8:21 PM |
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Red Shoes
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Joined on 01 Jul 2005
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Surrey
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Posts 933
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
Nothing in points 1 - 9 make me envious of his "genius". He bought and sold some houses with some profit and had a job buying and selling shares....
Houses wanted in Hull to £80k. All considered- burn outs /refurbs or refurbished. Fast completions no surveys. Commissions paid!
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| 08 May 2009, 7:00 AM |
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Zulu
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Joined on 26 Mar 2004
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Colchester
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Posts 1,166
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
9/ Smiling and happy, wondering why no one on SP wanted to listen to his persistent warnings about UK property The main problem was his timing as he was ranting on about a crash since at least 2003,in the interim many made money in BTL and BTS,his ande many other perma bears predictions belatedly came true as was bound to happen given enough time,if I predict a property boom I have no doubt I will eventually be correct.Many regulars on here with far more property expertise than Bubb pointed out how difficult timing was and to focus on the deal,that still holds true today.In his defence his knowledge of shares is extensive and I would far prefer his opinions there than about property investing,although his mention of cycles I find interesting if not wholly convincing (Harrisons work is flawed as a look at previous busts in the uk housing market quickly shows,cycle lengths varying from 12-18 years IIRC)
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| 09 May 2009, 3:37 AM |
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Thomas Maika
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Joined on 06 May 2009
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Posts 22
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
(for the record, I'd like to include a copy of this posting from another thread here, for those who may be raeding this thread in 3-6 months time): You want to look back? So do I. Let's see exactly what was written by "DrBubb", these are articles on Financial Sense 08/17/05 Savings Replaced by Reliance on House Price Inflation : warned of dangers of using home as ATM 10/03/05 The Lessons of Grandparents : explained the Credit Bubble, forecast a coming big K-cycle fall 07/05/07 The Rich Feast in London has Left a Property Bubble in its Wake : called the exact top in UK property* 01/07/08 Restructuring America's Suburban Dream : predicted jump in Oil prices, fall in suburban home prices
10/14/08 Rebuilding US wealth, means we must Stop Digging! : gave suggestions for public policy Meantime, he made 5-7x his money investing in Gold shares,and "got the 'ell outta the UK", and went to HK before the collapse in Sterling. Find me any regular on SP who has a record like that. (Can you? I doubt it) Many SP-ers are mired in debt with their property portfolios losing value, hoping that home prices will rise again. While the lucky ones may have sold out, those who parked their profits in cash or UK stocks saw the real global spending power of their Sterling cash take a big drop, and stocks dropped further still. Funnily enough, HK property was a bit of a safe haven, especially relative to Sterling, or UK property. An issue currently discussed elsewhere is: Should you get out of the UK before Sterling takes its next big leg down? 
= = = = = *EXCERPTS, from the July 2007 article: 1/ "Another indicator that I particularly like is the price of traded Builder shares. Normally, this will lead the market by perhaps six months. In the USA, the builders gave a great early warning (almost a year ahead) that the US property market was peaking. They may be doing something similar now in the UK. The average builder stock peaked around the turn of the year, and is now down about 25-30%. A similar drop was a good warning in the US. This suggests that UK prices may be peaking out this summer, even in London, where the market had been so hot through the spring." 2/ "A wake-up call that property has become too risky, would soon put prices even lower, as alert investors and the over-geared suddenly rush for the exits. Then the market might find itself in an even more dangerous phase. If and when prices fall far enough that the Peakees find themselves with negative equity, then the real stress will begin. At that point, many will be trapped with expensive debt, and no exit. The banks will not allow them to sell the properties, unless they can cover the full mortgage amount. Many will have stretched to buy, so they will not have the extra funds to cover the mortgage shortfall, and so they will be stuck continuing to make the debt repayments, unless they are willing to face bankruptcy. Many could find themselves as virtual debt slaves while the market continues to slide. Some will sell, and also bank foreclosure will rise, just as they have in the US. There is a possibility that the UK may face years of property falls, and a market that does not find its low until it has fallen by 20-30% lower, or even more. If banks back away from their aggressive lending to BTL investors, then the market will need to find substantial buying from FTBers in order to reach stability. Many dropped out of chasing property at much lower prices, many will need prices to be 30% lower or more before they become truly affordable again."
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| 09 May 2009, 8:28 AM |
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Red Shoes
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Joined on 01 Jul 2005
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Surrey
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Posts 933
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
"Many SP-ers are mired in debt with their property portfolios losing value, hoping that home prices will rise again. While the lucky ....." This is just the usual one trick ponyism that Bubb espoused. If property prices go up, property people win, if they go down they lose, is just b*****ks. The BMV traders I know are making fortunes, buyers and landlords (like myself) are seeing record returns and HUGE margins. I couldn't care less about property values, booms , busts, cycles - they are all media driven nonsense for consumption only by those who don't understand the nuts and bolts of this business. Using this argument alone I guess Trump, Sugar,Branson etc,etc must be quivering in their boots as they too are "mired" in debt....
Houses wanted in Hull to £80k. All considered- burn outs /refurbs or refurbished. Fast completions no surveys. Commissions paid!
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| 23 Oct 2009, 3:53 AM |
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DrBubb
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Joined on 23 Dec 2004
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Hong Kong
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Posts 2,943
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Re: Dr Bubb, Genius or just pure luck ?
Pure luck... it must have been. How else could someone have sold out in 2001, bought Gold at the low. Left the UK in 2006. Bought Hong Kong property as UK property was peaking. Now sold out of half of those HK properties, each one at a useful profit. Meantime, look what happened to Sterling against the Dollar (and HK$) http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/1880/aa1w.gif I wont even mention the disaster that was UK property from 2007 until Q1.2009. And what's this??? He called for a "DEAD CAT BOUNCE" in UK property at the beginning of April?? PURE LUCK. It must have been. Surely.
DrBubb - is an abbreviation of "Debt Bubble"- something which has distorted property markets for years, but bubbles dont last forever, as US real estate demonstrates, and so does the drop in the UK in 2007/08. After the Dead Cat bounce of 2009, worse is coming in the UK
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