Singing Pig

You misunderstand me.

I did not say 30% BMV... I said 30% below peak price - AS A MINIMUM - is what I think you should be buying at.

If you want 30% BMV then I would suggest you buy 30% below next years MV, ie 30% below 30% below the peak price (ie 60% below peak price, or 51% below peak price if you take 30% off the lower price rather than 60% off the peak price!)

I do not need to predict house price apocalyse - IT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW.  It is all a question of where the bottom is - 15% off peak price - ie todays price, or 30-50% off peak price - which would bring us back in line with long term trends with a bit of an overshoot.

For the avoidance of doubt Extradry Martini speaks a huge amount of sense, though I have a lot of respect for Clottie as well.  (Not that I have posted for ages so I'm not sure what she has been saying recently!)

Property investment really is simple.

Buy cashflow positive properties (by cashflow positive I don't mean in day 1, I mean including all costs and taking a view on long run IRs - I would suggest you should assume IRs are going to be 7% plus, and anything lower is a bonus.)

or

Buy properties that you KNOW are going to be able to be sold in the short term at a profit (ideally without having to go to the trouble of doing a refurb!)  In the current market I genuinely think that you probably ought to reflect that prices could easily fall at 10% every 3 months for the next year.

My idea of what prices are doing are based on London and the south east, mainly poor to fairly good areas (ie not very very poor areas, and not prime mayfair properties, but I see at lot of everything in between.)

It is carnage out there and I can only assume that the lack of posts on this forum is down to people realising that.

To an extent I am trying to be practical, on the other hand I am saying that anyone with half a brain is working on the basis that Extradry is right, and if anyone can find a BTL or development that works even assuming the crash continues like it is now for another few years is getting serious BMV!  I believe most people who buy 30% BMV mean 30% below peak price, ie 15% BMV ie October's MV, ie next spring's 10% over MV
 

30% BMV is a rolling RICS valuation on the day - 30% BMV today is not the same price as last month or next year etc.

I understand BMV thank you very much.  ;-)

But 30% BMV is not much good if the market falls 30% in the next year.  Unless you are planning on doing a runner - either selling before the 30% fall happens or literally leaving the country with your equity in a briefcase. 

I believe that some people manage 30% BMV.  But generally 30% BMV is actually 30% below an asking price that was a bit optimistic 3 months ago and is now a bit out of date.