Singing Pig

Zulu/Overseas,

 

Sorry about the tardy response....the day job keeps getting in the way. Anyway briefly, as I indicated before my approach is fairy lazy in that I look for trending up shares and simply jump on/off accordingly. Some good examples of this recently have been AQP/GYG and CLE. Apart from this current holdings are:

 

MPO,WNG,TAN,ETI,BKIR,NAE,CAL,DTY,PFC,888,AVV,TEP,MPI,BNH,KLR,AVV

 

I operate very tight stop losses as in essance everything I buy should be going up (or else I got the trade wrong in the first place) 3% to 5% typically. I tend to let the shares proper alone inside the ISA wrapper until such time as the run out of steam following the initial purchase, but I will keep buying with my spread bet account. Good example recently was AQP where I hold shares in the ISA account but  bought more on five consecutive days in the SB account. Up about 7% on the year also, mostly in last two weeks. Will post again when I can.

 

newtrader,

I also use TA, I would be interested in your entry/exit criteria,i find shares normally trend in a channel and this would often stop you out with 3-5% stops even though the trend was intact.what software do you use?

overseas

Yes my trading is slow,i'm looking to get a rising income stream from dividends and options to fund further purchases,i will post some other filters when i get time

cheers Zulu

Overseas,If you get a chance try this one,I quite like it but would use technicals and sell options( to buy) where possible 

TTR= Trailing twelve months or nearest equivalent depending on screener

 

Value Screen Low PER and PSR

PEG< 1

PER<= Ind avPER

PSR<= ind av PSR

ROE>Ind av ROE

5 yr av ROE > Ind av ROE

ROCE> Ind av ROCE

5 yr av ROCE > Ind av ROCE

Long term debt < Ind av LTD

Margins

sceen on business oriented components,if a company is weak in its core day to day business theres little chance it should be included in your portfolio

use operating margin then gross margin if op is not available

asset turnover shows how well a company is turning its physical asset base into sales(covers low margin high turnover companies)

ROCE(ROI)shows how well a company does in day to day operations

ROE depends on how conservative balance sheets are (debt levels)

First 3 lines are the primary screen which is value but there are likely to be too many dogs in there

Next 5 lines are secondary theme of quality to solve the problem,the size of the list should now be managable

with a high probability it contains few if any dogs

Don't get hung up on the fact that the number of secondary tests exceed the primary theme,the important thing is to articulate the main goal

To put more emphasis on primary theme

1 peg<0.75

2 ttm pe<=(Ind av ttm pe)*.75

3 ttm p/s<=(Ind av ttm p/s)*.75

4 ttm p/cf<=(Ind av ttm p/cf)*.75

5 ttm roce> Ind av roce

6 5 yr av roce>Ind av 5 yr roce

7 long term debt ratio<Ind av ltdr

Newtrader,A few questions if you don't mind I'm always interested in looking at new ideas

Do you only use technicals?

what are your screens to define trend and typical timeframe invested?

I'm working on the money management(position sizing) side at the moment and multi exit criteria,although your stops are too tight for me your entry criteria must be very good,do you know your percentage accuracy?

 

Zulu, looks an interesting screen and I would be interested in how many candidates are identified.  Trying to find companies that are out performing their competitors but where the prices does not yet reflect it.

Problem is though that the screening software I mentioned does not allow you to screen using industry averages.  You actually need to specify particular numbers.  Don't think there is any way around it unless you can give me some figures to use.

The figures are not going to be a constant but moving goalposts I'm afraid,thats the advantage the likes of o'shaughnessy has with the compustat data,have you read his 3rd edition of what works on wall street by the way,excellant work,

Thanks anyway the screen makes intuitive sense in that its business is better than average but undervalued by the market,a similar screen more buffett like focuses on top quartile performance in the operating ratio's(made easy by REFS)

If the pullback continues there may be some good buying opportunities ahead ;)

Zulu/Overseas,

 

Sorry again about the tardy reply. Been travelling with work. How did you both survive last week. I went to about 60% cash (although not as quickly as I would have liked). Basically pared back much of my gains since the start of the year. Currently only holding DTY,WNG,RNO,EXPN,UKC, All spread bets closed, much to risky at the moment. You guys sitting in the wings, gone to cash, holding, looking for bargains.

 

Regards

 

 

Yes its been an interesting few days!  I went to about 30% cash as I thought there was no real fundamental reason why there should be a prolonged dip.  As I mentioned I tend to have a fairly aggressive portfolio so they were hit hard over a couple of days. I'm about the same as you I think.  Still up on the year but not by much (2-3%).    However if this continues that still makes 15% or so over the year which is OK.  We have a had a great run over the past 3-4 years and I think it may be running out of steam a little.  The US housing markets could yet cause some ripples.