Singing Pig

hi carl,

while I applaud what you are trying to do, I have to ask are you going to get any FACTS from any of the organisations on your list? to my (cynical) mind, all you are going to get is statistics, and you know what the man said about lies, damned lies and statistics. in any case, FACTS or statistics, they will obviously be historical, i.e. anything up to 6 months out of date, they can only tell us where we have been, not where we are going. and while it is important to learn from history, what we are seeing now is unlike anything that has happened before. o.k. i appreciate that we have to use something, other than a crystal ball.

not putting you down carl, from your past posts it is clear that you are far more experienced than me. just suggesting a little caution. 

Good Point - Well Made,

I have no argument with your comments, I was motivated to start this thread because I was fed up of reading vague views posted by people which could not be substantiated.

I wanted to compile factual sources of info where people can research and make their own educated guesses about the future.

My view is that the best way is to learn to evolve with the market because, as you intimate, we cannot see the future; we cannot base or plans on what went before because that is only an indication.

My view, based on the past, is that each time there is any kind of crisis (real or perceived) everyone feels it is the worst ever - I only agree that this is the latest in a never ending evolution of the financial markets.

What I'd like to know is the effect on the weekly profits of the major BTL lenders - as their profits are whittled away, because they are not lending enough money, the executives will be looking for the next innovations they can come up with to start lending again...., I also expect that they are all working very hard to find liquidity which will also effect all of our futures.

It's going to be an interesting time!

Carl Henry

wizhard:

while I applaud what you are trying to do, I have to ask are you going to get any FACTS from any of the organisations on your list? to my (cynical) mind, all you are going to get is statistics, and you know what the man said about lies, damned lies and statistics. in any case, FACTS or statistics, they will obviously be historical, i.e. anything up to 6 months out of date, they can only tell us where we have been, not where we are going. and while it is important to learn from history, what we are seeing now is unlike anything that has happened before. o.k. i appreciate that we have to use something, other than a crystal ball.

absolutely government statistics are hugely manipulated and this is getting more and more apparent by the day - 3% inflation anyone? To understand where we are going you have to understand cycles. These are the key and whatever Gordon Brown claimed he did not abolish boom and bust, it's the opposite he presided through one of the greatest ever credit boom in history and he is going to see the resultant bust

I agree with the last post if we are going to look at a SURVIVAL guide then I think we need to focus more on the facts of what you need to do in the current climate to keep your long term plan on track.

I would rather the so called experts focus on this rather than the 'get rich quick, buy your property for free, no money down and lie through your back teeth to get there' schemes being banded around at the minute.

Things like:

How to maximise your rents by maximising floor space and making a property tenant (and landlord) friendly.

Where to get the best and cheapest agents (if you use them).

How to minimise your tax liability (if you plan to pay any )

Whether it would be better to repay your mortgages, tax versus and how to go about doing it.

How to manage your tenants so they don't shaft you (I know so many instances of this it's unreal).

I think its fair to say that BTL is now a major part of the market, the market needs landlords and capital appreciation is not the route to wealth (at least not for the next 5-10 years anyway).

What do you think?

LONDON (ShareCast) - Buy-to-let mortgage lender Paragon (Xetra: 555869 - news) has seen reduced arrears over the past three months,

The group said it continued to operate profitably and in line with management's expectations from 1 April to 30 June 2008. Third quarter profit before taxation was similar to the average quarterly underlying profit for the first half of the year.

The number of accounts in arrears has reduced since March, with the percentage of accounts in arrears remaining at similar levels, Paragon said. The charge for impairment remains consistent with that for the first six months and is in line with expectations.

Credit market conditions continue to constrain new lending activity, it added, with lending mostly limited to further advances to existing landlords. Total loans to customers, at £10.4 billion, are at a similar level to a year previously.

How to maximise your rents by maximising floor space and making a property tenant (and landlord) friendly.

Where to get the best and cheapest agents (if you use them).

How to minimise your tax liability (if you plan to pay any )

Whether it would be better to repay your mortgages, tax versus and how to go about doing it.

How to manage your tenants so they don't shaft you (I know so many instances of this it's unreal).

I think its fair to say that BTL is now a major part of the market, the market needs landlords and capital appreciation is not the route to wealth (at least not for the next 5-10 years anyway).

What are your tips on each of these?

Posted above "I was motivated to start this thread because I was fed up of reading vague views posted by people which could not be substantiated. I wanted to compile factual sources of info where people can research and make their own educated guesses about the future."

Is this really necessary?  You will never find two economists who agree, and why on earth does anyone on here think that they can predict any better than professional economists (me included)?

I am happy to talk about house prices all day.  But this forum is about making money, and ultimately doing that relies on doing what Pod suggests.

In terms of economics what do you need to know.  We have had a very long boom and the law of averages says that will end.  Ditto the specific housing boom.  Look at what is happening on the street right now.  Read the headlines in the Mail.  Look at the Nationwide BS real average house price graph and the real house prices vs average earnings graph on the previous page.  And what is going to happen (is happening) is damn obvious.

The property industry (EAs, builders, surveyors) is fucked.

If you get a good offer for any of your properties, take it.  If you're thinking about buying - don't.  Unless you can get a good house in a good area at 8-9% yield for at least 30% below peak price (and even then it may turn out to be a mistake).  If you are thinking about ex-council, flats, poor areas, HMOs etc add a percent or 2 to the suggested yield above.

The economic facts were there to be read at least 3-4 years ago.  Survival now has got nothing to do with reading the economic facts - far too late for that.

 

It's about predictions Father Fred,

It's part of the activity of being in this business, I totally agree reading the obvious day-to-day facts on the ground and then reacting accordingly is my preference.

But their are people who want to make money on this forum who are being mislead by people who simply "Rant" about how bad it is without any balancing comments or practical suggestions. Robert G gives some good clues of the way to be thinking.

If "It's All Over" why are lenders still lending at 75% when some people on here predict house prices falling by up to 50%, and if the market stops moving for a while (giving the impression of price falls) how long would it continue?

Your Formula of 8% to 9% initial yield & 30% BMV is certainly a good ratio to follow.

I will continue to look at all events to assess whether "survival" is the mode to be in for a long or short time and how to re-adjust investment strategies for the immediate, short, medium AND long term.

Property is for life - not just for Christmas!

Cheers!

Carl Henry